He also provides more information about the latest developments in the agricultural sector. 

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Sihobo says in the case of maize, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) kept the production estimate unchanged from April at 14,72 million tonnes. He adds that a harvest of this size is decent and well above the 10-year average of 12,8 million tonnes and annual maize consumption of 11,8 million tonnes.

Adding to that, about 7,55 million tonnes are white maize and 7,17 million are yellow maize.

Sihlobo further attributes the yearly decline in maize from 16,32 million tonnes in the 2020/21 season to reduced area plantings and expected lower yields in some regions.

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He explains that if this harvest materialises, South Africa will likely remain a net exporter of over three million tonnes of maize in the 2022/23 marketing year, which started in May.

“Other crop production estimates were slashed from April estimates, such as groundnuts, whose production is at 70 400 tonnes (up 9% y/y). Dry beans production estimate is at 55 995 tonnes (down 3% y/y). Sorghum also remained unchanged at 137 220 tonnes, down by 36% y/y.

“Overall, these mainly optimistic production data will have minimal impact on prices. As with the previous few years, the domestic grains and oilseeds prices primarily follow the global markets. The Russia-Ukraine war worries continue to present upside pressures on prices, reflected in the South African grains market.

“Still, the fact that supplies improved provides comfort as far as the availability of essential grains and oilseeds is concerned. The upside price movements bode well for farmers in areas that didn't experience much crop damage. They stand to benefit from slightly higher grains and oilseeds prices. Meanwhile, the consumers, livestock and poultry producers will likely experience increased costs, concludes Sihlobo.

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