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There is optimism about this season’s maize harvest after observing the planting progress in various regions of South Africa. Good rains this month is also a contributing factor to this optimism.

Sihlobo says if it is assumed that farmers planted the intended area of 2.5 million hectares (up 10% year-on-year), and an average yield of 5.0 per hectare, which is plausible with current soil moisture, South Africa could harvest a minimum crop of 12.5 million tonnes in the 2019/20 season. This would be an 11% increase from the 2018/19 harvest of 11.3 million tonnes.

He adds the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) currently forecasts South Africa’s 2019/20 maize harvest at 12.8 million tonnes (commercial production). Meanwhile, the International Grains Council (IGC) estimates 13.5 million tonnes.

Yields assumptions are causing the difference between these estimates and ours. The USDA has a yield estimate of 5.1 tonnes per hectare, while the IGC has a much higher yield estimate of 5.4 tonnes per hectare. Both estimates are plausible if South Africa receives good follow-up rain to support the crop within the next two months, says Sihlobo.  

Together with that, South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee is expected to release an official preliminary estimate of area plantings of maize and other summer crops (soybeans, sunflower seed, sorghum, dry beans and groundnuts) on Wednesday.  

That was Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, Agbiz.

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