Here is Sihlobo...

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He says the inherent uncertainty around weather conditions remains a major risk to global wheat production in the near future. There are increasing reports of drier weather conditions, in Europe, North America and Southern Africa. Sihlobo is of the opinion if dryness persists for a prolonged period, it could threaten wheat yields and, in turn, lead to a downward revision of the optimistic outlook of the 2020/21 global wheat production of a record 768 million tonnes. This was predicted by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

He says over the past week, Romania, Russia and Ukraine are amongst countries which saw their 2020/21 wheat production forecasts revised down, because of expected poor yields in some spring wheat-growing regions. The United Kingdom, France, Belgium, Netherlands and parts of Germany are also amongst the European regions currently experiencing inadequate moisture.  

The same is true for America where analysts now have some doubts that the USDA wheat yields forecasts will materialise if there aren’t sufficient rains in the coming days or weeks.  

He says a broader update of the 2020/21 global wheat production estimates, will be released by the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report on June 11. 

South Africa is the only major wheat producer in  Southern Africa, and by the week of May 24, only nearly two-thirds of the estimated 495 000 hectares for the 2020/21 season had been planted. Various regions of the major wheat-producing province, Western Cape, have experienced persistent dryness which somewhat slowed the planting activity.

That was Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist, at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, Agbiz, only on Before Dawn.

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