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However, some other parts of the world have experienced some weather challenges, which contributed to a slight contraction in global production and ending stocks of grains and oilseed crops for the 2022/23 season.

This was projected by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

ALSO READ: Global grains and oilseeds production conditions for 2022/23

Makube adds that besides the ongoing war in Ukraine following Russia’s invasion, India received heavy rains these past few months, while the United States and the European Union experienced drought and heatwaves during the summer, damaging crops in some regions.

“Global maize production and ending stocks estimates for the 2022/23 season showed a contraction of 4% and 2% year-on-year (y/y) respectively at 1.17 billion tons and 307 million tons with declines for the European Union, Serbia, and the United States.

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“The war in Ukraine added to this tight supply outlook with the country’s production and stocks expected to contract by 25% and 43% respectively y/y.

“In the case of soybeans, production and stocks are expected to rebound sharply by 9.9% and 8.8% respectively for the 2022/23 season, which bodes well for the availability of soymeal which may possibly dampen the price outlook.

“The recent trend in international maize prices shows gains with the average for October so far up 4.2% month-on-month (m/m) and almost 36% higher y/y at US$324.29/ton. Although soybeans eased by 1.8% m/m they remained 24% higher y/y at US$595.24/ton,” explains Makube in a statement.

He further adds that early indications are that South Africa’s farmers intend to plant almost 0.2% more hectares under summer crops for the 2022/23 production year according to the latest update from the National Crop Estimates Committee.

The expected total summer crop planted area is seen at 4.351 million hectares with soybeans being the biggest gainer and at a potential average production of 2.5m tons, this can be a record high for the crop.

He says the rest of the crops showed declines in the expected planting area across the board. This is, however, early days, and the situation is likely to change as the season progresses.

Even so, Makube concludes that even though farmers’ profit margins are not at record highs as a result of high input costs these past few months, another fantastic agriculture season for South Africa in the year ahead, with the La Niña weather pattern, is still in the forecast.

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