In the past few days the Northern Cape, in particular, has seen a marked increase.

In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number reflects the average number of people being infected by one person.

Rossouw is the head of research & analytics at reinsurance company Gen Re South Africa and a member of the COVID-19 actuaries response group; he looked at this data to track the movement of the pandemic in the country.

“That number is more than one when new infections will grow and it’s less than one when the number of new infections will decline.”

Rossouw estimates the reproduction number by looking at the change in COVID-19 case numbers over time, depending on testing and reporting mechanisms remaining stable.

“During the last two weeks or so R has been increasing, getting closer to one and in the last seven days or so, R has gone over one for South Africa. Currently, it’s between 1 and 1.1 and by implication, that means that the number of infections has slowly started to increase in South Africa.”

Two provinces are currently tracking above the one threshold, with the Northern Cape having experienced a sharp rise to an excess of 1.3.

This means every one coronavirus case leads to another 1.3 cases down the line.

EWN